Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin Is a
Superior Safe-
Haven in Current 'Inflationary
Era',
SaysArthur Hayes
Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin Is a Superior Safe-Haven in Current 'Inflationary Era', Says
Arthur Hayes
Timing is everything. "If you bought Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin at the recent all-time high," he
wrote, "you might feel like a beta cuck."
By Murtuza Merchant
Jul 2, 2024 Jul 2, 2024
3 min read
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Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained the
historical economic cycles and their implications for the current market
environment in his latest blog post , arguing that the present economic
landscape is characterized by a local cycle of inflation• Экономика » Финансы » Инфляция
• Экономика » Макроэкономика » Макроэкономические индикаторы » Инфляция. That makes Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin a
superior safe-haven asset compared to gold due to its independence from
national control.
He separates economic cycles into local and global periods. In a local period,
he wrote, authorities often resort to financial repression to fund wars and
other significant expenditures, resulting in inflation• Экономика » Финансы » Инфляция
• Экономика » Макроэкономика » Макроэкономические индикаторы » Инфляция. Conversely, a global
period is marked by deregulated finance and promotes global trade, leading to
deflation• Экономика » Финансы » Дефляция.
Hayes believes we are currently in a local cycle driven by inflationary
pressures and geopolitical tensions.
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"The world is moving from a unipolar US-ruled world order to a multipolar
world order that contains leaders such as China• Китайская Народная Республика (КНР), Brazil, Russia, etc,” he
wrote.
This shift contributes to the current inflationary environment as nations turn
inward and prioritize domestic economic stability.
He further elaborated on the investment implications of these cycles, stating,
"If you believe in neither the system nor those governing it, you invest in
gold or another asset that doesn’t require any vestiges of the state to exist,
like Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin.” Source: Arthur Hayes
In his view, Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and the speed of transactions make
it a more attractive option than gold in today’s economic climate.
Hayes provides a historical context, describing how past cycles influenced
investment choices.
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From 1933 to 1980, the Pax Americana Ascending Local Cycle saw the U.S.
economy growing as it financed wars through financial repression. In contrast,
the 1980 to 2008 Pax Americana Hegemon Global Cycle was characterized by
deregulation and a stronger dollar, favoring stock investments over gold.
In the current cycle, which began in 2008, Hayes points out the emergence of
Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin as a significant development.
"The wrinkle is that at the start of the current local cycle, Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin offered
another stateless currency,” he wrote.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin is maintained through a cryptographic blockchain• Информационные технологии » Информационно-коммуникационные технологии » Информационные технологии и телекоммуникации » Базы данных » Публичная база транзакций » Блокчейн
• Высокие технологии » Информационные технологии и телекоммуникации » Базы данных » Публичная база транзакций » Блокчейн,
allowing for faster and more secure transactions. This distinction has enabled
Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin to outperform gold since its inception.
Hayes further said that the ongoing local inflationary cycle and geopolitical
tensions make Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin a more reliable store of value than traditional assets
like gold.
He emphasized the importance of understanding these cycles to make informed
investment decisions.
"We know we are in an inflationary period, and Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin has done what it’s
supposed to: outperform stocks and fiat debasement. However, timing is
everything. If you bought Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin at the recent all-time high, you might feel
like a beta cuck because you extrapolated past results into an uncertain
future," Hayes wrote, highlighting the importance of strategic timing in
investment decisions. Source: Arthur Hayes
Looking forward, Hayes predicts a shift in credit allocation, stating, "How
Pax Americana and the collective West allocate credit will resemble how the
Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans do it."
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He advises investors to monitor "fiscal deficits and the total amount of
non-financial bank credit" as key indicators.
Edited by Stacy Elliott .
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