French elections: What happens
next and
will Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль resign?
Friday 05 July 2024 10:02 BST
Comments
Article bookmarked
Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile
Don't show me this message again
✕
open image in gallery
French President• Франция » Политика Франции » Политики Франции » Президент Франции
• Франция » Государственное устройство Франции » Президент Франции
• Государство » Государственное устройство Франции » Президент Франции
• Политика » Политика Франции » Политики Франции » Президент Франции Emmanuel Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль and his wife Brigitte Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Брижит stand in the
voting station before voting in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France• Франция
For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to
our breaking news emails
Sign up to our free breaking news emails
SIGN UP
I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The
Independent. Read our privacy policy
Sunday will see the second round run-off vote in France• Франция ’s parliamentary
election.
There is currently the potential of a hung parliament with no clear majority,
unless the far right wins enough seats to form its first government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство since
World War Two.
A total• Объект бренды » Бренды на t » Total of 577 constituencies are being decided in the election, one for each
seat in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. Seventy-six
lawmakers were elected in the first round last Sunday - including 39
representing the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies - leaving 501
seats up for grabs in the run-off.
This Sunday’s voting ends at 6pm (1600 GMT) in towns and small cities and 8 pm
(1800 GMT) in big cities. At 8pm, pollsters will issue initial nationwide
projections based on early partial results from polling stations• Государство » Выборы » Избирательные участки that closed
earlier in the day. These are usually reliable.
Vote counting is usually fast. However, if the result is tight - for example
the RN is within a few seats of an absolute majority - the final result may
not be known until the early hours of Monday.
open image in gallery
French far right leader Marine Le Pen• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ле » Ле Пен, Марин smiles as she meets supporters and
journalists in Henin-Beaumont, France• Франция, June 30 (Copyright 2024 The Associated
Press• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ас » Ассошиэйтед Пресс. All rights reserved.)
The RN topped the first round with a third of the total• Объект бренды » Бренды на t » Total vote. Opinion polls
forecast it will win more seats than any other party but that its margin of
victory is shrinking and that it will likely fall short of a working majority.
The left-wing New Popular Front and an alliance of centrist parties supporting
President Emmanuel Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль have withdrawn more than 200 candidates from
second-round contests to bolster the chances of the front-running anti-RN
contender in their districts.
Historically, a more fragmented field has favoured the far right, and the very
latest polls - carried out after the candidate withdrawals - suggest the
strategy is working and the most likely scenario is a hung parliament, with
the far right missing out on an absolute majority. That outcome would lead to
the most political uncertainty.
open image in gallery
Young people standing and using smartphones in the parisian metro, Paris,
France• Франция,
One key question is whether voters will back the anti-RN candidate in their
constituency, or if they choose to abstain or back the far right despite their
preferred candidate’s recommendations to the contrary. The RN and its allies
will need to win 289 seats to secure an absolute majority and be able to
implement their anti-immigration, eurosceptic agenda. The party has said its
leader, Jordan Bardella, would be its candidate for prime minister. In this
scenario, Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, would resign immediately.
Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль would name a new prime minister who would then be tasked with forming a
government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство. Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль would have the right to veto a nomination if he deemed the
person unfit for the role.
The RN has nuanced its stance on what it would do if it finished just shy of
an absolute majority. Bardella had said he would not lead an unstable minority
government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство » Правительство меньшинства, but the RN’s Marine Le Pen• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ле » Ле Пен, Марин has opened the door to courting other
lawmakers if it is only lacking a small number of seats.
What happens in a hung parliament in France• Франция?
Attal has said the mainstream right, left and centrist parties could form ad
hoc• Телекоммуникации и связь » Компьютерная сеть » Беспроводные компьютерные сети » Ad hoc alliances to vote through individual pieces of legislation in the new
parliament, rather than try to put together a coalition government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство. On the
left, however, some have touted the idea of forming a ruling coalition. Unlike
Germany• Германия and many other European countries, France• Франция has never had a broad
coalition government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство in its modern political history. Either scenario would be
likely to bring political uncertainty and slow down reforms.
What happens if there is no deal?
It is possible that none of the three groups - the far right, Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль’s
centrist alliance or the left - will be big enough to govern alone, reach a
coalition deal or provide the assurance• Страхование it can run a viable minority
government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство » Правительство меньшинства. In such a case, France• Франция would risk• Страхование » Риск political paralysis, with little
or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство running basic daily
affairs.
Will Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль resign?
Macron• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Макрон, Эмманюэль has hitherto ruled this out, but it might become more appealing to him
if policy paralysis prevails. Neither parliament nor the government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство can force
a president to resign.
The constitution says there can be no new parliamentary election for another
year, so an immediate repeat vote is not an option.