Solana
ETF Approval
Odds Plunge
to Just 3%
Polymarket predictions for a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) plunge lower
than ever before, to a dim 3%. Nevertheless, some experts are bullish on the
long game.
The importance of regulatory changes is agreed upon, but the ideal form of
these changes is disputed.
Solana: The Longshot ETF
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Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform, has downgraded the
likelihood of a Solana ETF yet again. Since the site began taking bets on the
Solana ETF, its probability has never exceeded 15%. Nevertheless, the past
month has seen this already-low chance crash, such that it now sits at a
dismal 3%.
Read More: Solana ETF Explained: What It Is and How It Works Polymarket Solana
ETF Probability. Source: Polymarket
In other words, a Solana ETF has always been considered a longshot. And yet,
it still has certain advantages that make it more likely than most
cryptoassets.
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After a prolonged struggle, the SEC approved ETFs for Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin and Ethereum• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Ethereum in
the same year, and many experts think that Solana is a viable candidate for
number three. Brazil has already announced its approval, and hope remains that
this ETF will serve as a valuable test case.
Silver Linings?
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, was frank in his dismissal via social
media.
It s difficult to envision any additional spot crypto ETFs coming
to market under [the] current administration. Nothing would indicate a spot
Solana or XRP ETF is possible in next year or two given [the] current
state, Geraci said.
For Geraci, in other words, the only hope for a Solana exchange traded fund
would come from the US Presidential election, though he did not explicitly
back a candidate.
Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, was more optimistic. In
a recent interview , he argued that Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin ETFs spent ten years fighting
rejections. Yet, the SEC finally gave a green light to Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin and Ethereum• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Ethereum
ETFs in 2024.
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The first approval can open the floodgate, and subsequent victories will be
easier.
From my perspective, resolution of uncertainty is the most important
factor. We think those things are going to coalesce It s gonna take
regulatory changes , he added.
Read More: XRP ETF Explained: What It Is and How It Works
Hougan seemed much less inclined to link ETF performance to the upcoming
election itself. Rather, he claimed that regulatory uncertainty would resolve
itself during the campaign, and new ETF efforts would perform better in the
resultant clarity. Bitwise plans to lead these efforts through data.
Bitwise has always led with data in its SEC filings. We re very
excited about the Solana ecosystem. We think it s robust. We re
doing the work, Hougan claimed.
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