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Заголовок Dark déjà vu for European economy as virus cases spike
Дата 20201018

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Dark déjà vu for European economy as virus cases spike

Dark déjà vu for European economy as virus cases spike

New restrictions in Europe are not as drastic as the near-total lockdown
imposed in the spring. (AFP)

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Updated 30 sec ago


October 18, 2020 00:32

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Dark déjà vu for European economy as virus cases spike

The early-year norm of closed hospitality venues and struggling airlines is
beginning to return amid new infections

Updated 30 sec ago


October 18, 2020 00:32

Follow @arabnews

LONDON: Europe’s economy was just catching its breath from what had been the
sharpest recession in modern history. A resurgence in coronavirus cases this
month is a bitter blow that will likely turn what was meant to be a period of
healing for the economy into a lean winter of job losses and bankruptcies.

Bars, restaurants, airlines and myriad other businesses are getting hit with
new restrictions as politicians desperately try to contain an increase in
infection cases that is rapidly filling up hospitals.

The height of the pandemic last spring had caused the economy of the 19
countries that use the euro to plunge by a massive 11.8 percent in the
April-June quarter from the previous three-month period. About 1.5 million
more people registered as unemployed during the pandemic. The damage was
contained only by governments’ quick decision to spend hundreds of billions of
euros to keep another 45 million on payrolls and companies running.

While the new restrictions are so far not as drastic as the near-total
shutdown of public life imposed in the spring, they are kicking an economy
that’s down. For many Europeans, there is a foreboding sense of déjà vu.

“It is a disaster,” says Thomas Metzmacher, who owns a restaurant in Germany• Германия’s
financial hub, Frankfurt, of the government’s decision to impose an 11 p.m.

He noted that even before the new restrictions many people in his industry
could only just about survive. The curfew means people who come in for a meal
don’t linger for a few extra beers or schnapps, which is where restaurants
make most of their profits. “Now it is: Go for a meal, finish your drink, pay,
go home,” he said.

Experts say that the global economy’s course depends on the health crisis:
Only when the pandemic is brought under control will it recover.

Countries like China, which have so far avoided a big resurgence like Europe,
are faring better economically. The US never quite got its first wave under
control and its economy remains hobbled by it.

Europe had reduced the number of infections much faster than the US and
managed to keep a lid on unemployment. But the narrative that contrasted
Europe’s successes against the Trump administration’s failure to subdue the
pandemic is being quickly revised.

As coronavirus cases rise anew in Europe, economists are slashing their

German Chancellor• Германия » Политика Германии » Политики Германии » Федеральный канцлер Германии

• Германия » Государственное устройство Германии » Правительство Германии » Федеральный канцлер Германии

• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Правительство Германии » Федеральный канцлер Германии

• Государство » Государственное устройство Германии » Правительство Германии » Федеральный канцлер Германии

• Политика » Политика Германии » Политики Германии » Федеральный канцлер Германии
Angela Merkel• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ме » Меркель, Ангела has extended the wage support plan as tighter
business• Экономика » Предпринимательство restrictions return. (Reuters)

Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at financial services• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовые услуги

• Сфера услуг » Финансовые услуги
firm Allianz• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Al » Алльянц СЕ

• Страхование » Страховые компании » Страховые компании Германии » Алльянц СЕ
, says
there is a high risk that the economies of France, Spain, and the Netherlands
will contract• Экономика » Предпринимательство » Сделка again in the last three months of the year. Italy and Portugal
are also at risk. While Germany• Германия is seeing an increase in infections, too, it
is not as bad and the economy appears more resilient.

We see an elevated risk of a double dip recession in countries that are once
again resorting to targeted and regional lockdowns,” he said.

The pandemic is worsening just as governments were trying to ease off the
massive amounts of financial support they have been giving households and
business• Экономика » Предпринимательство owners.

Many governments have programs where they pay the majority of salaries of
workers who are redundant in the hope that they will be able to quickly get
to work after the pandemic. In France and Britain that covered a third of
the labor force at one point, and 20 percent in Germany• Германия. They also gave cash
handouts to households and grants to business• Экономика » Предпринимательство owners.

Now governments are phasing out some of that support and aiming to provide
more targeted aid to people directly affected by new restrictions. That will
not help people whose jobs are affected indirectly. A pub facing a curfew,
say, would be eligible to get wage support for its staff but the brewery
supplying it might not.

The impact will vary between countries — while Britain is shifting to a
less-comprehensive wage support plan, Germany• Германия has extended its program.

As with the pandemic’s initial surge in the spring, the sectors in Europe most
affected by limits on public life are services including travel and
hospitality — those that depend most on face-to-face contact between people.

Countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece rely heavily on tourism. It accounts
for almost 12 percent of Spain’s economy, compared with less than 3 percent
for the US and about 7 percent for France.

Major airlines in Europe expect to operate at about 40 percent of normal
levels this winter and are again cutting the number of flights. Lufthansa,
British Airways• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Бр » British Airways and others are cutting tens of thousands of jobs as they
expect no quick return to how things were before the pandemiceven with
government aid.

Even where there are no hard restrictions, the health hazard scares customers
away, so shops are likely to see less business• Экономика » Предпринимательство.

The EU is giving €750 billion ($880 billion) in financial support to member
countries to cope with the fallout. Governments like Spain’s were planning to
invest in long-term projects such as renewable energy and technology. It now
appears they will have to spend more on just keeping the economy afloat. The
European Central Bank• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ев » Европейский центральный банк

• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Со » Совет Европы » Европейский центральный банк
is injecting €1.35 trillion ($1.6 trillion) into the
economy, which keeps borrowing cheap even for countries with weak finances
like Spain and Italy.

But the longer the pandemic drags on, the more the decisions on how to spend
financial aid will become political, says Subran, the economist. Political
parties are fighting over how to deploy the resources, and unions are going on
strike to influence the debate. It mirrors the turmoil in the US, where a
badly needed stimulus package has been delayed.

For Ludovic Nicolas-Etienne, a Parisian shopping for food among the stalls of
the central Bastille square, it is a tragedy foretold. He blames the people
who during the summer disregarded safety recommendations to party and
socialize after months of lockdown.

“I was expecting this,” he said, wearing a mask outdoors the day after France
announced a state of emergency. “Some people are not responsible enough, so
the good people are paying for the bad ones.”

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============= Итог: 2,8563 ; Государство#Государственное устройство Германии#Правительство Германии #Федеральный канцлер Германии#Меркель, Ангела 2,8563 ; Страхование#Страховые компании#Страховые компании Германии#Алльянц СЕ 2,0000 ; Экономика#Предпринимательство#Сделка 1,5000 ; Экономика#Финансы#Финансовые услуги 3,1375 ; Германия#Государственное устройство Германии#Правительство Германии #Федеральный канцлер Германии#Меркель, Ангела

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